A tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico now has much higher chances for formation and development within the next 3-5 days and will be worth closely watching.
National Hurricane Center meteorologists are continually eyeing a low pressure system producing disorganized storms, thunderstorms, and showers just off of Mexico’s coastline.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving the area a 70% chance of development over these next 3-5 days as the system stalls and meanders in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Generally, model guidance shows this is likely to remain in the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf, staying trapped before moving toward southern Texas. Stout high pressure with lovely weather in Louisiana will keep this disturbance trapped in the South Gulf for at least the next 3 days. Some models do move this system inland, with little to no issues.
There is the outside chance, however, this disturbance …